A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the country and caused disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in universities but hardly any elected officials or activists are willing to participate with even the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. They composes two pieces that seek neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments range over national emblems, duties, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will win here and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
